(Editor’s note: The future prices of benchmark tracking ETFs, the lede, the economic data, and the headline were updated in the story.)
U.S. stock futures pared earlier losses to rise on Friday following Thursday’s lower close. Futures of the major benchmark indices were up.
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the second estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 GDP was revised down to an annual growth rate of 0.7%, reflecting a sharp deceleration from the 4.4% seen in the third quarter.
Concurrently, January 2026 data shows a resilient consumer despite the slowdown, with personal income rising 0.4% and personal spending (PCE) increasing 0.4%. While the headline PCE price index rose 2.8% year-over-year in January, the core PCE—which excludes volatile food and energy costs—remains more persistent at 3.1%, up from 3.0% in December.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump, in a Truth Social post, warned Iran, saying, “Watch what happens to these deranged sc*mbags today,” after Iran’s Supreme Leader warned on Thursday that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed, while the IRGC signaled potential retaliation against Israel’s Leviathan and Karish gas fields.
These threats to regional energy infrastructure coincide with the confirmed crash of a U.S. KC-135 refueling plane in Iraq and reports of explosions in Dubai following a drone interception.
The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.28%, and the two-year bond was at 3.76%. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool‘s projections show markets pricing a 99.1% likelihood of the Federal Reserve leaving the current interest rates unchanged in March.
| Index | Performance (+/-) |
| Dow Jones | 0.37% |
| S&P 500 | 0.39% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 0.36% |
| Russell 2000 | 0.51% |
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, respectively, were higher in premarket on Friday. The SPY was up 0.46% at $669.15, while the QQQ advanced 0.45% to $599.97.
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