Oil prices remained elevated on Monday as President Donald Trump threatened to strike Iran’s crude export facilities on Kharg Island and the war heads toward its third week, with the Strait of Hormuz still closed.
The Kalshi prediction market crowd has one blunt question on the table: Does WTI close above $100?
The bet resolves against the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) front-month WTI settlement price — the official end-of-day price published each afternoon by the Intercontinental Exchange, the benchmark the entire oil market uses. Above $99.99 at settlement, YES wins. Below it, NO wins.
At 3.40 AM ET, WTI futures were trading at $100.37 a barrel, up 1.68%, after earlier climbing as high as $102.40 a barrel to their highest level since July 2022.
The Kalshi crowd is leaning YES — but not convincingly. The YES contract on a close above $99.99 is trading at ¢66, implying a 59% probability that WTI settles above $100. The crowd is also pricing a 56% …
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