A cleaner drug, zero competition, and two binary readouts this year. Plus, Powell and oil near $99.
Three straight losing weeks for the S&P. Oil within spitting distance of $99. Jerome Powell steps to the mic on Wednesday. Jensen Huang kicks off Nvidia’s GTC today. Happy Monday.
The S&P 500 closed Friday at 6,632, down 1.6% on the week and roughly 5% off its January high. Dow at 46,558. Nasdaq at 22,105. Gold above $5,100 an ounce. WTI crude at $98.71. Every member of the Mag 7 is red on the year.
The oil picture keeps getting worse, not better. Bloomberg modeled Strait of Hormuz shutdown scenarios this week: one month puts crude around $105, two months at $140, three months at $165. The Trump administration suspended the Jones Act to try to tame prices. None of it has been enough.
Goldman put a number on the inflation risk: a $10 sustained oil price increase would push year-over-year headline CPI from 2.4% to roughly 3.2% within three months. That’s the backdrop walking into Wednesday’s FOMC decision.
