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The Iran war has pushed crude oil prices over 45% in March, with WTI crude futures settling above $100 for the first time since July 2022. With both Iran and the U.S.-Israel continuing to attack each other, an end to hostilities seems distant.
Iran Invasion Odds Surge
The odds of a U.S. ground invasion of Iran by the end of April surged to 70% as per the prediction market, up from 57% just a week ago.
Meanwhile, expectations for peace have declined. Bettors priced in a 32% odds of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by the end of April, down from 40% last week.
Here’s What Prediction Market Is Saying
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