The sharp oil rally following the Strait of Hormuz disruption woke oil from its slumber. Spot Brent price briefly touched $141 per barrel, as energy stocks rallied, policymakers scrambled, and analysts revised price forecasts upward.
But the spike tells one part of the story – arguably the least important part. Just weeks before the crisis, Norwegian energy research firm Rystad Energy projected a different reality.
“Markets remain comfortably supplied, barring major geopolitical disruptions,” their report said. The Iran shock didn’t invalidate that outlook. It interrupted it.
The real risk isn’t that oil is suddenly too scarce. It’s that neither low-price stability nor crisis-driven price spikes are generating the kind of investment needed to sustain future supply.
Changing Prices, Not Solving Problems
Before the disruption, Rystad’s outlook pointed to persistent oversupply through 2026, with “balances… widening into the second half of the year” and sustained inventory builds.
The Hormuz disruption has dramatically altered short-term market conditions. A system that appeared to be comfortably supplied exploded almost overnight as geopolitical risk repriced the market. Yet, …
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