Polymarket’s Iran ceasefire market has logged over $170 million in total volume, making it one of the largest geopolitical wagers in prediction market history.
But a dispute over whether a ceasefire actually occurred has left traders locked out of payouts, with no clear resolution timeline.
The Discord That Decides
On Polymarket, resolution works like this: any user can propose an outcome by posting collateral. If another user disputes it, the matter goes to a vote among holders of UMA (CRYPTO: UMA), a governance cryptocurrency.
Traders debate the evidence in a public Discord server.
The sticking point is definitional. Some traders argue the US-Iran agreement qualifies as a “temporary tactical stand-down,” which may not meet Polymarket’s resolution criteria.
Others point to Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi’s statement that Iran’s forces would cease …
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