U.S. inflation surged in March at the fastest monthly pace since June 2022, driven almost entirely by an energy shock tied to the Iran war.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% month-over-month — matching Wall Street’s estimate — as energy prices jumped over 10.9% on the month. This marks the biggest monthly CPI jump in nearly four years.
The annual inflation rate soared from 2.4% in February to 3.3% in March, the highest since May 2024.
Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, came in at 0.2% month-over-month, below the 0.3% consensus. On an annual basis, the underlying inflation gauge rose 2.6% year-over-year, up from 2.5% in February and below expectations of 2.7.
That divergence between a hot headline and a contained core is the structural signal in Friday’s report: the Iran war has not yet spread beyond the pump.
Chart: Tradingview
Energy Did The Work — And Then Some
The energy index surged 10.9% in March, the largest monthly increase since September 2005.
Gasoline alone jumped 21.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis — the largest single-month increase since the series was first published in 1967 — and …
