A report from brokerage Wolfe Research found that when Polymarket users bet a company will miss earnings estimates, the firm misses 44% of the time, more than double the historic 18% benchmark.
When bettors are very confident a company will beat, it happens 90% of the time, above the 81% norm, Bloomberg reported on Thursday.
Yin Luo, who runs quant research at Wolfe, said the accuracy may come from crowdsourcing, with Polymarket users more diverse than the sell-side analyst pool that drives consensus estimates.
A separate working paper from London Business School and Yale researchers offered a more uncomfortable explanation.
The academics found that earnings markets for companies audited by one particular accounting firm were more accurate than those for companies with other auditors. They declined to name the firm, but the finding raises questions about whether some participants may be …
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