Fear is unwinding as fast as it built.
The CBOE Volatility Index — commonly known as the VIX, Wall Street’s real-time gauge of expected equity market volatility — collapsed 44% over the three weeks ending April 17, 2026. The gauge hit a nine-week low of 16.87 Friday as Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. President Donald Trump announced Tehran had agreed to never close the waterway again.
A drop of that magnitude over a three-week window is rare.
History suggests what follows tends to be positive and durable for equity markets.
A Rare Signal: Only Seven Prior Episodes Since 1970
A TradingView event study analyzing every instance of a three-week VIX rate of change dropping at or below negative 40% since 1970 identified just seven prior episodes.
The current reading of negative 43.74 joins that list as the eighth.
| Date | VIX 3-Week Move % | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2013 | −45.16% | U.S. fiscal cliff crisis resolved |
| Nov 3, 2014 | −40.34% | Mid-cycle growth scare; Ebola fears and slowing global demand faded |
| Jul 11, 2016 | −50.82% | Brexit vote shock absorbed; central banks signaled accommodation |
| Nov 21, 2016 | −45.18% | U.S. presidential election; markets pivoted to … |
This post was originally published here
