Investor Gary Black of The Future Fund LLC on Sunday predicted that ride-hailing platforms with human drivers would become obsolete in the next five years as autonomous vehicles scale.
The Rise Of Robotaxis
In a post on the social media platform X, Black shared his prediction about what the ride-hailing industry could look like in the near future. “Ride hailing platforms with drivers will likely become extinct within 5 years,” he said, outlining that Robotaxis would become “dominant” in the future.
Black also said that as the sector progresses, autonomous capabilities would “become one of the most popular add-on options” for customers at the time of purchase. He then shared that the future will also see intense competition in the sector.
Tesla’s Role
However, Black lamented at Tesla Inc.‘s (NASDAQ:TSLA) lack of progress in the sector, sharing that the idea that Tesla would alone scale unsupervised autonomy was “borderline head-in-the-sand delusional” as competitors like Alphabet Inc.‘s (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG) Waymo, WeRide Inc. (NASDAQ:WRD), Pony AI Inc. (NASDAQ:PONY), Baidu Inc.‘s (NASDAQ:BIDU) Apollo Go were “already completing 1.0M paid unsupervised autonomous trips per week.”
He also said that Tesla’s Robotaxi economics cannot be modeled based on factors like trips per day, miles per trip, etc. He then said that a better forecast would be modeling the total addressable market for autonomous ride times Tesla’s market share in …
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