This Week In A Nutshell: Mortgage-rate volatility has moderated as the United States and Iran near a peace agreement, but succession drama at the Federal Reserve may amp up uncertainty once again as Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh has his confirmation hearing.
Upcoming Attractions
Retail sales data for March will be released on Tuesday. While it provides a key window into the financial health of consumers and is expected to strengthen marginally, the series is noisy and unlikely to move markets much. As usual for the past seven weeks, markets will be most sensitive to the outcome of the peace talks between the U.S. and Iran and any change in the odds that the Strait of Hormuz will open soon. And this week, there is other drama that will be playing out as Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh has his confirmation hearing before the Senate on Tuesday. He is caught in the middle of a most unusual standoff between the Fed and the White House that threatens to delay his confirmation past May 15th when Jay Powell’s term as chair ends. More on this below.
Last Week’s Highlights
Last week, mortgage rates ended the week slightly lower with the highlight being Friday’s announcement from Iran’s foreign minister that, following a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open”. That turned out to not be completely true as the U.S. continued its blockade over the weekend. In economic data, the producer price index (PPI) came in slightly lower than expected, but overall inflation data for the month points to inflation remaining firm. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE), is now estimated to show annual inflation of about 3.2% in March, the highest since early 2024. And finally, housing continues to bounce along the bottom as March existing home sales fell 3.6% to an annual rate of 3.98 million.
Diving a Little Deeper
Republican Senator Tillis, who sits on the Senate Banking Committee, has pledged to block Kevin Warsh’s confirmation for Fed chair until the Department of Justice drops its investigation of current Fed Chair Powell. President Trump has remained resolute so far in saying the investigation should continue. Betting markets now show only a 36% probability that Kevin Warsh will be confirmed before May 15, when Powell’s term ends. What happens if he is not and how will that affect housing?
- Chair Powell has stated that he would stay on as chair pro tempore, which has past precedent, but in those cases the chair did not face opposition from the president. President Trump has stated that he would fire Powell should he stay on after May 15. The committee that sets the Fed’s policy rate, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), elects its own chair and would likely elect Powell. However, the President could appoint another existing governor on the Board of Governors to be Fed chair. That would be the first time the Fed chair and the FOMC chair were not the same person. Importantly, while the FOMC sets interest rate policy, the Board of Governors actually controls something called interest on reserve balances (IORB), which is how the Fed enacts interest rate policy.
- Should we enter such uncharted territory, rates might fluctuate because of the uncertainty. However, we are unlikely to see massive swings because (1) the standoff will probably resolve within a few weeks and (2) Kevin Warsh and Jerome Powell are unlikely to be miles apart on interest rate policy to begin with. So whether Warsh enters the picture in May, June, or July will not change the overall picture much for mortgage rates, for which investors are thinking over the long term. This means we might want to get some popcorn ready, but little in the way of tangible consequences for the housing market. This week’s hearings should provide some more clarity into Warsh’s stance on policy rates for the longer term and it will be the first time we have heard from him since he was nominated, prior to the Iran war.
Redfin Housing Market Reports
Late April Is the Best Time to List a Home For Sale
- Late April is a sweet spot for sellers; nationwide, homes listed during that period have the highest chance of selling fast and fetching more than the asking price. This is from a Redfin and Home Economics analysis.
- Real estate is local. On the West Coast, March is typically the best time to put a home on the market; on the East Coast, May tends to be best.
- The best time to sell varies by region, but the swings are bigger in some parts of the U.S. than others. Places with mild weather and more supply are generally less seasonal. Places with more extreme weather or tight supply are more seasonal.
- The picture is more complex for buyers: House hunters have the most homes to choose from in late April, but they get the best deals in July.
Homebuyers Hold the Negotiating Power In 38 Major Metros, Up From 29 Last Year
- Nationally, sellers outnumber buyers by 43%—just shy of the largest gap in records dating back to 2013. When sellers outnumber buyers, the buyers who are in the market have bargaining power.
- 38 of the most populous metro areas were buyer’s markets in March, up from 29 a year earlier. Just five were seller’s markets, down from nine in 2025.
- Home prices rose 5% across seller’s markets last month, compared with a 2% increase in buyer’s markets.
San Francisco Home Prices Jump Most in 8 Years Amid AI Boom
- The median sale price in the Bay Area metro rose 14% year over year in March, compared with a 1% gain nationwide. That helped San Francisco reclaim its title as the most expensive major metro to buy a home.
- Nationally, the housing market remained sluggish as high costs and economic uncertainty gave buyers and sellers pause.
- Active listings of U.S. homes for sale fell 1% from a month earlier and pending sales barely budged. Homes that did sell moved at the slowest March pace in a decade.
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