One Polymarket wallet pocketed nearly $500,000 betting on the June 2025 US strike on Iranian nuclear facilities in the hours before it happened.
A new report says it was not an isolated case.
The Anti-Corruption Data Collective reviewed all 435,672 markets settled on Polymarket between January 2021 and mid-March 2026, covering $54.4 billion in wagers. It found low-probability bets in war markets win at more than triple the rate prices suggest they should.
War Markets Are The Outlier
Longshot bets, defined by ACDC as wagers of $2,500 or more at prices of 35 cents or lower, win 14% of the time across all Polymarket categories. In military and defense markets, the win rate climbs to 51.8%.
Political markets overall, including elections and politician speech, sit closer to 25%.
Roughly $35 million has been wagered on winning longshot bets in political markets since 2021. About $25 million of that came in the first 10 weeks of 2026 alone, exceeding the entire 2025 total.
Full story available on Benzinga.com
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