May 1, 2026
Aluminum prices are holding at elevated levels and analysts warn they could go higher — as President Donald Trump doubles down on his naval blockade of Iran and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal trade.
The Persian Gulf accounts for roughly 9% of global aluminum production, but 18% of aluminum exports outside of China. That makes the region’s output far more important to the rest of the world than its production share alone suggests — and far more vulnerable to a prolonged shipping disruption. 
When the Iran conflict broke out on February 28, London Metal Exchange aluminum futures jumped as much as 10% within two weeks. Prices settled around 8% higher and have been trading near four-year highs. 
The reason is simple: Gulf smelters cannot ship what they produce, and they are running out of what they need to keep producing. Most Gulf smelters depend on alumina imported by sea through the Strait of Hormuz. With the strait effectively blocked, raw material supplies have been cut off. Facilities that cannot receive inputs have been forced to reduce output or shut down entirely. 
Aluminium Bahrain, known as Alba and home to the world’s largest aluminum smelter, declared force majeure on its deliveries and shut down about 300,000 tons per year of capacity — roughly 19% of its total output. Qatalum in Qatar also initiated a controlled production shutdown due to natural gas shortages caused by the conflict. 
Emirates Global Aluminium subsequently announced that repairs to restore full production at its Al-Taweelah facility could take up to a year — a timeline that analysts say could push the global aluminum market outside of China into a deficit even if shipping through the strait resumes soon. 
The downstream impact reaches into everyday life. Aluminum is used in cars, canned food and beverages, aircraft, building materials, and packaging. The automotive sector is among the most exposed — modern vehicles contain an average of 180 kilograms of aluminum per car. Aerospace and packaging industries face similar pressures, with no easy short-term substitute for the metal. 
Ross Strachan, head of aluminum raw materials at CRU Group, said prices could climb toward $4,000 per ton if the disruption continues. BMI, a unit of Fitch Group, said prices are likely to stay elevated in the coming weeks, warning that a prolonged disruption could push the market to $3,700 per ton given that it was already expected to run a deficit in 2026. 
The blockade shows no signs of ending soon. President Trump vowed this week to maintain the naval blockade and was briefed by military commanders on further options, saying the pressure would force Tehran back to the negotiating table.  Iran’s leadership has shown no willingness to comply.
Trump said he will keep the blockade in place until Iran agrees to a nuclear deal. Tehran says it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz until the U.S. Navy stands down. Neither side has shown signs of budging. 
For manufacturers, consumers, and businesses that depend on aluminum — from car makers to food packagers to construction firms — the longer this standoff lasts, the higher costs are likely to go.
JBizNews Desk
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