A Wall Street Journal investigation published Sunday found that just 0.1% of Polymarket accounts have taken home 67% of all profits on the platform, while more than 70% of users have lost money.
The analysis covered 1.6 million accounts dating back to November 2022, with the bottom 10% of traders down an average of $4,000 each. A typical user is somewhere between $1 and $100 in the red.
The numbers echo a recent academic study finding that 68.8% of Polymarket users lost money, with the top 1% capturing 77% of gains.
Kalshi shows similar patterns.
Spokeswoman Elisabeth Diana told the Journal there are 2.9 unprofitable users for every profitable one, based on data from the past month.
Kalshi Pushes Back On The Framing
Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara fired back on X, rewriting the WSJ’s headline herself: “People win more on prediction markets than sportsbooks and equities.”
Diana also …
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