A political party led by Naftali Bennett, Gadi Eisenkot, and Avigdor Liberman would win 47 seats, three fewer than the parties would receive if they ran separately, a Maariv poll published Friday found.
However, the combined list would still open a wide lead over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud, which would receive 25 seats.
Under the three-party alliance scenario, the opposition bloc would reach 61 seats, compared with 49 for Netanyahu’s coalition and 10 for the Arab parties.
The main beneficiary of such a merger would be the Democrats, which would rise from 10 to 14 seats, preserving the opposition bloc’s narrow majority.
A separate scenario tested by Maariv found that a merger between Yisrael Beytenu and Yashar!, headed by Avigdor Liberman, would receive 25 seats, one more than the parties would gain separately.
In that scenario, Bennett’s Together would fall by two seats to 24, while the Democrats would rise by one seat to 11. The bloc map would remain unchanged, with 60 seats for the opposition, 50 for the coalition, and 10 for the Arab parties.
Alternatively, if Eisenkot were placed at the head of the Yisrael Beytenu-Yashar! alliance, the list would rise to 27 seats, three more than the parties would receive separately. It would become the largest party, ahead of Likud, which would fall by one seat to 25.
Full opposition merger falls short of majority
The poll also tested a full merger of four opposition parties, including the Democrats, but excluding the Arab parties. Such a list would win 60 seats, leaving it one seat short of a Knesset majority.
In that scenario, Likud would rise by one seat to 27, Otzma Yehudit would fall by one seat to eight, and the Netanyahu coalition bloc would stand at 50 seats.
Without mergers, and amid uncertainty over a possible US-Iran agreement and continued fighting in Lebanon, the political blocs remain unchanged from the previous poll. The Zionist opposition parties would receive 60 seats, Netanyahu’s coalition 50, and the Arab parties 10.
The Reservists Party, Religious Zionist Party, Blue and White, and Balad would all fail to cross the electoral threshold.
The poll also found that 68% of Israelis fear for themselves and their families because of crime and violence on Israel’s streets. Another 26% said they were not afraid, while 6% said they did not know.
Finally, a majority of Israelis, 56%, said they disagreed with Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s claim that the formation of the change government with Mansour Abbas was more serious than the October 7 massacre. Some 33% agreed with him, including 59% of coalition voters, while 11% said they did not know.
The survey, conducted by Lazar Research under Dr. Menachem Lazar in cooperation with Panel4All, was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, May 6-7, among 503 respondents representing Israel’s adult population aged 18 and over, Jews and Arabs. The maximum margin of error was 4.4%.
