Artificial intelligence (AI) is no longer just a Wall Street narrative; it is the definitive engine of the U.S. economy, driving the vast majority of national growth in early 2026.
Historic Economic Impact
According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0% in the first quarter of 2026. This acceleration in real GDP reflected upturns in government spending and exports, as well as an acceleration in investment that was partly offset by a deceleration in consumer spending.
Market data from Bespoke Investment Group, shared by the Kobeissi Letter, highlights that investment in software and IT equipment contributed 134 basis points to that expansion. This means tech infrastructure fueled a massive 67% of all first-quarter economic growth.
Kobeissi’s X post noted this makes it the largest quarterly tech contribution “in history,” smashing the previous “1999 record” set during the dot-com boom by roughly 10 basis points. “To put this differently, without this AI-driven tech investment, Q1 GDP growth would have been close to flat,” the post noted.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis explicitly confirmed that the quarter’s investment growth was driven by increases in intellectual property products …
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