The S&P 500 closed above the 7,500 level for the first time on Thursday, but Polymarket traders are overwhelmingly betting the benchmark index will open lower on Friday as investors digest stretched valuations, AI-driven market concentration and developments from the ongoing U.S.-China summit.
The S&P 500 rose 0.77% to finish at a record 7,501.24 on Thursday. However, the May 15 Polymarket contract implied a 99% probability that the benchmark index would open lower on Friday.
Why That Number Matters
Thursday’s close marked another milestone in the market’s AI-fueled rally, with the benchmark index extending gains even as investors continued monitoring tensions involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
Markets also tracked developments from the U.S.-China summit, where officials discussed trade, tariffs, …
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