In the wake of alarming victories by virulently anti-Israel, pro-Palestinian candidates in New York’s Democratic primaries and elsewhere, I’ve been hearing from friends, relatives, and readers that a hostile wave is sweeping over the Democratic Party and it’s time for Jews to go Republican.
Polls show Republicans today are more pro-Israel than Democrats. Anger toward Israel from the Left has been jolting. Candidates used to compete to out-Israel each other and win approval from AIPAC, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. No longer. Today, many can’t run away fast enough.
The shift may force many American Jews to choose between their own domestic interests and security in an era in which even outright neo-Nazis and white supremacists have been welcomed into the GOP – and their own support for an increasingly unpopular Jewish state and its even more unpopular prime minister.
The wall-to-wall bipartisan support for Israel that I had devoted much of my career to helping build is ancient history. Israel and AIPAC, once admired, have become pariahs in many political campaigns this year, particularly but not exclusively on the Left – in part a reaction to the destruction of Gaza, in part a culmination of long-standing rightward shift by the government in Jerusalem and groups like AIPAC.
Billions in grant aid to Israel passed Congress on autopilot just a few years ago; today, even long-time friends are calling for restrictions, even cutoffs, on economic and military assistance going to Israel.
“In Washington, defending Israel has fallen out of favor among many congressional Democrats,” observed the New York Times. That includes many Jewish lawmakers and Jewish voters.
They were turned off by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to dump the Democrats and join the GOP two decades ago. That was exacerbated by his increasingly autocratic leadership and an anti-democratic government dominated by religious and nationalist extremists.
An estimated third of Jews already vote Republican, particularly the Orthodox and politically conservative, a number that has been somewhat consistent for years.
Before there is a Jewish exodus to the GOP, it should be noted that Republican attitudes toward Israel appear to be shifting as well – and not favorably.
Young Republicans are increasingly turning against Israel, though not necessarily for the same reasons as their counterparts on the Left. Israel’s devastation of Gaza repels many. Still, they also blame Israel for US President Donald Trump breaking his American First pledge to end foreign wars – not start new ones, especially ones that hit them in their wallets. Some are blaming Israel for pushing him into war with Iran.
The loudest voice is Vice President JD Vance, an America Firster and leading isolationist in a party he wants to make him the next president. He opposed the war with Iran and warned Netanyahu that Trump is the only world leader “sympathetic” to Israel. The implication seemed to be that if Vance were president, there would be one fewer.
Recent surveys by the Pew Research Center, Quinnipiac University, and the University of Maryland indicate that about half of Republicans under 50 hold negative views of Israel, double the number for their seniors.
No political boundaries
Antisemitism knows no political boundaries. While on the Left more seems directed at Israel with some spillover to the American Jewish community, the targets on the Right tend to be Jews.
The single most important reason Jews have felt safe and welcome in America and able to thrive is arguably the Constitution’s First Amendment, and particularly the wall of separation between religion and state. Republicans led by Trump and religious extremists are working hard to remove it.
Trump’s Religious Liberty Commission has called for the Department of Justice to promote an “originalist understanding” of the Establishment Clause – namely, tear down that wall. The department has reportedly asked other federal agencies to report “anti-Christian bias” in their ranks.
The GOP under Trump is on a crusade to include religious displays and Bible reading in public schools, permit non-profit religious institutions to make political endorsements, provide taxpayer funding for private schools, and more. Trump has embraced the concept of declaring this country a Christian nation.
A Young Republicans chapter in Tennessee has been sending mailers declaring “No wars for Jews” and “Stop the Great Replacement.” That’s the antisemitic white supremacist theory that “Jewish elites are engineering the ethnic and cultural replacement of white populations with non-white immigrants that will lead to a ‘white genocide,’” Reuters reported.
It’s not a fringe view. It is echoed in some form by Trump, Vance, the late Charlie Kirk, Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon, Laura Ingraham, Stephen Miller, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, and right-wing media outlets like Fox News, Newsmax, and One America News Network.
Trump’s winning issue in 2024 was his pledge to round up unwanted immigrants (“they’re eating the pets”) and deport them. “They’re poisoning the blood of our country.”
The Jewish community, remembering how so many found refuge from virulent antisemitism in Europe, remains a strong supporter of liberal immigration policies and fearful of immigration scapegoating.
Support for Israel may be waning in both parties and seeping in from the fringes, most visibly from the Left. The hard truth is that many Jews are alienated by this extremist Israeli government.
It was seen in the recent New York races where many progressive Jews voted for candidates openly hostile to Israel, starting with Zohran Mamdani, the mayor of the city with the largest Jewish population outside Israel. He has even threatened to arrest Netanyahu on a World Court war crimes warrant.
Repeated surveys of Jewish priorities show Israel has not been a determinative voting issue for many years, most likely because of the positive bipartisan consensus. This is a time of sad and dramatic change for Israel, however. Support for the Jewish state and AIPAC endorsements have become liabilities for many candidates, even pitting Jewish candidates against each other.
Most Jews want Israel to survive and succeed, but the numbers who make support for Israel a priority in their political lives are shrinking, and that trend will continue unless there are fundamental changes in the way it relates to its own citizens, to its neighbors, and to the Diaspora.
Meanwhile, American Jewish voters have many other reasons to stay the course with the Democrats. They are not single-issue voters, and both parties offer incentives.
Republicans want limited government, less regulation, more business-friendly policies, restricted immigration, school choice, lower taxes, gun rights, and strong national defense and law enforcement.
A survey by the Jewish Electorate Institute showed Jews see Republicans as more pro-Israel than Democrats but “excessively conservative” on issues they care about like health care, abortion rights, voting rights, protecting domestic safety nets like Social Security and Medicare, education, climate change, civil liberties, gender rights, church-state separation, religious tolerance, and protecting against aggressive trends in white supremacy and Christian nationalism.
There appears little reason to expect any dramatic changes in Jewish voting patterns, and that is something that should worry Israeli leaders. Israel can’t afford to be irrelevant or ignored.
The writer is a Washington-based journalist, consultant, lobbyist, and former legislative director at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.
