US President Donald Trump keeps telling us he started the war with Iran so that the Islamic Republic “cannot have a nuclear weapon.” His energy secretary just gave the world reason to doubt his boss. Trump is unlikely to get what he called “the kind of deal that I feel is necessary.”
Energy Secretary Chris Wright told ABC News Sunday, “There may not be a nuclear agreement,” and the US will focus instead on “degrading their capacity to develop nuclear weapons.”
Sensing his humiliation, a dismissive Trump took to social media to say he “could not care less” if Iran makes a deal. He bounces back and forth between threatening to walk away and destroying the entire Iranian civilization.
Dealmaker Trump dramatically tore up the 2015 Iran nuclear pact (JCPOA) negotiated by the Obama administration, and said he could do better. He never really tried. There were limited but unproductive talks in his second term, with enough bombastic rhetoric going back and forth to destroy anyone’s hope.
Many believe the major flaw in the JCPOA from Trump’s standpoint was less its substance than the name most associated with it: Barack Obama. There is scant expectation that Trump could even get that deal today.
On March 25, 2025, Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, told the Senate Intelligence Committee that America’s intelligence leaders “assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon, and Supreme Leader [Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003.”
In Senate testimony a year later, she refused to say whether Iran posed any “imminent nuclear threat.” That’s not what Trump wanted to hear. “I don’t care what she said,” Trump told reporters. In his view, Iran was “very close” to having a nuclear bomb, PBS reported.
In private, Gabbard had advised against going to war and many of her arguments turned out to be spot on, according to leaked reports. Speaking truth to power apparently cost the intelligence chief her job; after weeks of rumors that Trump was planning to push her out, Gabbard resigned in May, citing her husband’s health.
Trump declared in June 2025 that US B-2s (stealth bombers) had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program. Apparently he oversold his achievement. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convinced him that the job was unfinished, and they went back on February 28 this year.
Iran has taken a hell of a beating in a war Trump refuses to call a war but can’t find an exit. Iran’s navy, air force, and even much of its air defense system have been decimated, but the regime persists, as does much of its drone and proxy terror network.
The old leadership was killed on the first day, only to be replaced by even more hard-line rulers. The popular uprising Trump called for never materialized.
Iran causes global economic shock
Iran retaliated with its oil weapon, closing the Strait of Hormuz and shocking the global economy. Trump and his party are reeling.
The president has been promising that the resulting huge jump in gas and grocery prices will soon disappear, but no serious economist agrees. That terrifies Republican candidates in this fall’s midterm elections as they are being hammered by Democrats talking about “affordability.” Trump dismissed the talk of the high cost of living as just a “hoax” and a “con job” just before he flies off in Qatar Force One for a tournament at his Irish golf course.
Secretary Wright, who is also presiding over Trump’s takeover of major Venezuelan oil fields, told ABC News Sunday, “We are degrading [Iran’s] capacity to develop nuclear weapons and ultimately to deliver them, if they develop them.”
That’s a big and dangerous “if.” For decades prior to this war, Iranian leaders publicly swore off going for the bomb. US and Israeli intelligence largely agree, as Gabbard told the president and the Senate, Iran was enriching uranium to near-weapon levels but that it had not yet made the breakthrough decision. Now, the new leadership is said to be reconsidering that policy, pointing to North Korea, Pakistan, India and Israel, which went nuclear as deterrence insurance against hostile neighbors.
If you’re picking winners and losers, Iran is a big loser just because of the military, economic and human damage that has been inflicted on it. But Trump cannot declare victory – despite doing so dozens of times – until Hormuz is open to the free and unfettered flow of shipping by all and there is an enforceable nuclear deal.
Trump may not be able to get either. His energy secretary said a deal “may await a next administration in Iran.” Thanks to the US and Israel, Iran got a new administration six months ago, and you know how that went.
Trump started an unnecessary war of choice without a clear operational plan or an endgame, without the support of Congress, the American people, or America’s allies.
Bombs are not the only things falling. The president’s approval rating has dropped to historic lows. Nearly two-thirds of Americans oppose his war and disapprove of the president’s handling of it. Four in five tell pollsters they blame the high and increasing cost of living on this war.
The president will try to stem the defection of disapproving Republicans when he speaks at this week’s mid-term convention in Dallas, but many Republican candidates won’t be there. They know their constituents are unhappy with how this war is hurting their pocketbooks, and candidates worry that on Election Day those folks may be staying home or pulling the wrong lever. The last thing they need is to be seen on television cheering Trump’s unpopular war.
The writer is a Washington-based journalist, consultant, lobbyist, and former legislative director at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.
