American households have been facing higher energy prices this year and as colder weather approaches this winter, they may face higher heating bills for their homes depending on the type of fuel used.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA), the Energy Department’s main analytical agency, released its winter fuels outlook on Tuesday, which said that the agency’s “expectations this winter vary because of diverging trends in energy price among fuels and regional variation in forecast temperatures.”
“We expect households using natural gas and propane as the primary heating fuel – collectively, about half of all U.S. households – will have lower energy expenditures this winter, primarily because of lower fuel costs,” EIA wrote.
“We expect higher energy expenditures for households where the primary heating fuel is electricity or heating oil because of higher prices for those fuels,” the agency added.
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EIA’s data showed that homes primarily heated by natural gas would see spending decrease by 9% compared with a year ago, with a range of forecast uncertainty across weather cases all showing spending decreases.
The West is projected to see a 7% increase in natural gas spending compared with last winter, while other regions are expected to see declines in the 10-15% range.
Propane-heated homes would spend 3% less under the forecast, with a range from a decrease of 10% to an increase of about 8%. Spending is expected to be flat in the South compared with last winter, while the Midwest and Northeast would see declines of 4% and 15%, respectively.
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Heating oil expenditures are projected to rise 21% nationally under EIA’s outlook, within an uncertainty range from about 15% to 35%.
Homes heated by electricity are expected to see spending rise 4% this winter, with the uncertainty range reflecting single-digit increases.
The West is projected to see a 9% rise from last winter, while the South and Midwest would each experience a 3% increase, and the Northeast would see a 3% drop, according to the outlook.
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EIA said that while it expects national average temperatures to be similar to last year, its forecast assumes warmer temperatures in the Northeast after the region experienced a relatively cold winter last year, with much colder temperatures in the West after it experienced an unusually warm winter a year ago.
The forecast also assumes the Midwest and South will experience similar temperatures as last year.
The agency noted that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has “identified a strong El Niño pattern this winter, which could lead to large temperature variations from our forecast.”
