Something rare just happened to Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) as global markets rallied following President Donald Trump‘s announcement of a temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire.
The chipmaker surged 30.11% across 10 consecutive trading sessions ending April 14, 2026 — every single session positive, no down days, no interruptions.
But AMD did more than a 30% rally. It notched 10 straight positive closes — something that has happened only four times in the company’s entire history since it went public in 1972.
That is a streak rarer than a 30% gain in a 10-day window itself.
Benzinga used TradingView’s “Performance Since Signal” indicator — a tool that scans a stock’s full price history, identifies every instance a specific pattern occurred, and then measures what the stock did in the weeks and months that followed — to answer one question: when AMD has moved this dramatically this fast, what usually comes next?
AMD’s Forward Return Analysis After 30% Rally Signal In 10 Sessions
The TradingView indicator identified 68 instances of AMD rallying 30% or more in a 10-day window since 1973.
For each instance, it recorded what AMD’s stock price did over the following one month, three months, six months and 12 months.
The average 12-month return across all 68 episodes is +47.6%.
That sounds exceptional, particularly when compared to AMD’s “unconstrained” annual return of 9.12% – what the stock returned in any random window.
But averages can mislead when a handful of extreme outcomes skew the result.
The median — the middle value if you lined up all 68 outcomes from worst to best — is a more honest read. At 12 months, it is +12.29%.
The gap between +47.6% and +12.29% is the fingerprint of a lopsided distribution: a small number of enormous wins (AMD up 473% in 1975, up 250% in 2009) are pulling the average up, while the typical experience is more modest.
The win rate measures something simpler: in what percentage of those 68 episodes was AMD’s stock price higher at the end of the window than at the start?
At one month, AMD was up 55.22% of the time. At three months, 58.21%. At six months, 59.7%. At 12 months, the win rate fades back to …
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