Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) reports fiscal Q2 earnings after the bell today.
The company has a habit of routinely beating earnings estimates, which explains the 94% chance Polymarket gives it of beating the $1.94 GAAP EPS consensus.
The more interesting action is on Kalshi, where traders are betting on which specific words Tim Cook and his team will say on the call, his last quarterly call as CEO before John Ternus takes over on September 1.
What Kalshi Predicts
“China” at 98%. “Manufacturing” at 96%.
Apple’s iPhone business in China collapsed through 2024 as Huawei’s premium phones took share.
It came roaring back this winter, with shipments up roughly 20% in calendar Q1. Investors want to know whether the recovery holds, and whether Cook’s two-year pivot of production to India is far enough along to insulate Apple from the next round of China tension.
“Tariff” at 96%. Apple absorbed $1.4 billion in tariff costs last quarter.
The Supreme …
This post was originally published here
