After five weeks of war in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz has become a chokepoint for the global economy. Following the military escalation of February 28, 2026, the waterway has entered what the United Nations now describes as a state of virtual closure.
According to the report by UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the strait—normally “one of the world’s most vital arteries of energy-related trade”—is now under systemic disruption. Although energy dominates the headlines, the ripple effect echoes through the entire economy, and its full effects may materialize months later.
Daily ship transits have collapsed by 95%, falling from a February average of 129 vessels to just six in March. UNCTAD warns that global merchandise trade growth could fall as low as 1.5% in 2026, noting the increasingly devastating global economic impact.
The Delayed Shock
Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, describes the ongoing situation as the “Last Ships” phenomenon, the final delivery before the supply vacuum.
“The last ships …
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