Ray Dalio says markets are pricing in a quick end to the Iran war, but his 13-step world war cycle suggests they are badly mistaken and President Trump’s latest threats may be proving his point.
Trump set an 8 p.m. ET Tuesday deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, threatening Iran’s ‘Whole Civilization Will Die Tonight‘ if no deal is reached.
For Dalio, that kind of escalation fits a pattern he has tracked across 500 years of history.
What The Cycle Says
In an article on X, the Bridgewater Associates founder laid out a 13-step sequence he says historically precedes all-out world wars.
His assessment: We are at Step 9, defined as multi-theater conflicts happening simultaneously across multiple continents.
Dalio traces the sequence from trade wars and proxy conflicts through the weaponization of chokepoints, culminating in direct great-power military combat. Steps 10 through 13 include full-scale war and a violent restructuring of the world order.
The Overextension Problem
Dalio’s …
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