Brent crude oil prices are likely to stay above $100 per barrel for the rest of 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz stays shut for another month, Bloomberg reported on Thursday, citing a Goldman Sachs note.
Analyst Daan Struyven stated that the “situation is fluid,” echoing Vice President JD Vance‘s comments of a “fragile” truce following the two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran announced on Tuesday.
“We continue to see the risks to our price forecast as skewed to the upside,” said Struyen.
According to Goldman Sachs, the limited traffic at Hormuz would lead to a loss of upstream production in the Middle East. As a result, Brent crude oil price could average at $120 per barrel in the third quarter and $115 per barrel in the fourth quarter of the year.
However, if the situation improves over the weekend, the analysts foresee oil price at $82 per barrel in the third quarter and $80 …
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