In March 2024, independent investment research firm Citrini Research — founded in 2023 by James van Geelen — built a long/short market-neutral basket to trade the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
The basket held long positions in stocks expected to benefit from a Republican win and short positions in names exposed to Democratic policy priorities.
The basket spanned roughly 120 names across themes including tariffs, energy, financial deregulation, healthcare and immigration policy. It was designed as a perception play on election odds, not a post-election fundamentals bet.
Post-Election Surge, Then A Sharp 2026 Reversal
According to a performance chart shared by Citrini Research, the basket surged sharply after the November 2024 election. It continued rising into mid-to-late 2025, reaching a peak return of over 220% since inception in early 2024.
The strategy then reversed hard. By early 2026, the basket had given back more than two-thirds of those peak gains.
As of the post, the basket still showed a cumulative return of approximately 65.49% since early 2024. However, the post-election alpha — the gain specifically attributed to the Trump trade — has been wiped out.
This post was originally published here
