Global equities soared late Tuesday as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones futures surged after a sudden two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran perfectly aligned with one of the stock market’s most historically bullish months.
Seasonality Favors The Bulls
The geopolitical breakthrough arrives just as the market enters a highly favorable seasonal window.
According to analysis by The Kobeissi Letter citing Bloomberg data, April is historically one of the strongest periods for equities. “The S&P 500 has gained +1.3% on average in April since 1928, the 2nd-best month of the year after July,” the firm noted, adding that “seasonality favors the bulls this month.”
Furthermore, over the last 25 years, the MSCI World Index has posted positive returns 75% of the time in April, averaging a 2.0% gain—the strongest of any month. This broader global momentum is heavily driven by U.S. equities, which hold a dominant 70% weight in the index.
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