When an oil shock hits, most retailers brace for impact. John Mercer, Head of Global Research at Coresight Research, thinks a handful are quietly positioned to profit from it.
“Value-focused retail — Walmart, dollar stores, warehouse clubs, off-price — are relatively better positioned to serve price-sensitive consumers,” Mercer told Benzinga. “Higher gasoline prices and global uncertainty would serve as a tailwind to these structural gainers in retail.”
The data backs him up. Dollar Tree‘s (NASDAQ:DLTR) fastest-growing customer in 2025 was the six-figure earner. In Q1, higher-income households accounted for 50% of net new customer growth; by Q2, two-thirds; by Q3, CEO Mike Creedon said roughly 60% of 3 million net new households earned over $100,000.
As an Iran war-driven oil shock ripples through the U.S. economy, that shift is about to accelerate.
Americans Are Already Feeling It
After the Feb. 28 U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, disruption in the Strait of Hormuz sent oil prices above $100. Fuel prices surged quickly, with gasoline up 27% to $3.79 and diesel rising 34% past $5 a gallon, signaling wider inflation pressures.
“2026 was already expected to be a year of still-elevated inflation, of about 2.8%, and it is likely to mark the sixth consecutive year of CPI averaging above 2% on an annual basis. The energy shock will only inject further upward pressure, while also adding uncertainty around rate cuts,” Mercer said. …
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