A new Federal Reserve study reveals that sweeping U.S. tariffs implemented in 2025 by President Donald Trump are entirely responsible for the recent surge in core goods inflation, hitting consumers with a direct, “dollar-for-dollar” price increase.
Driving The Inflation Spike
According to the April 8 FEDS Note authored by economists Robert Minton, Madeleine Ray, and Mariano Somale, aggressive trade policies enacted last year have dramatically shifted the U.S. economic landscape.
The researchers estimate that tariffs implemented through November 2025 raised core goods personal consumption expenditure (PCE) prices by a staggering 3.1% through February 2026.
Crucially, the economists determined that these levies “can explain the entirety of excess inflation in the core goods category relative to pre-pandemic inflation rates.” Furthermore, the tariffs contributed to a 0.8% boost in the broader core PCE index, which is the central bank’s preferred inflation metric.
A ‘Dollar-For-Dollar’ Consumer Burden
The findings firmly dispel the notion that foreign exporters or …
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