Dr Tyler Goodspeed, chief economist of ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) and the former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers in the first Trump administration, has provided an in-depth analysis of the historical causes of economic recessions.
During an interview with MarketWatch, published on Sunday, Goodspeed dismissed the idea of an AI bubble burst as a potential cause for the next recession, arguing that the triggers are usually more mundane.
He underscored that energy supply shocks have consistently been one of the main killers of economic expansions, contributing to 10 out of 12 U.S. recessions since 1945. He warned that a halt in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 20% of the world’s petroleum, for several weeks could trigger a recession.
“One of the most prolific killers of economic expansions, not just over the past 80 years, but really over the past four centuries, are energy supply shocks,” he said.
He also noted that the imposition of credit controls has historically contributed to economic downturns, citing a bill currently in Congress that could cap …
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