Wall Street’s biggest banks are expected to report almost $19 billion in combined stock-trading revenue for the third quarter when they post earnings next week, and Goldman Sachs is projected to bring in the largest share. Analyst estimates put Goldman’s stock-trading revenue at $5.1 billion, followed by Morgan Stanley at $4.9 billion, JPMorgan Chase at $4.5 billion and Bank of America at $2.6 billion. These are forecasts, not reported results.
In plain terms, stock-trading revenue is the money a bank makes by handling buy and sell orders for big investors such as pension funds, mutual funds and hedge funds. Every time those clients move large blocks of shares, the bank earns a cut for finding the other side of the trade, lending money to make the trade possible or carrying the risk until it is done. Busy, jumpy markets mean more trades, and more trades mean more fees.
Goldman, which reports Tuesday, sits at the front of the line. Of every $4 the five biggest banks are expected to earn from stock trading this quarter, roughly $1 is projected to go to Goldman alone.
The bigger story is that not every bank is enjoying the same ride anymore. In the first half of 2026, nearly all five of the largest U.S. banks benefited from a trading boom, with both their stock desks and their bond desks staying busy. Now that capital markets are cooling, gaps are opening between the winners and the rest.
Bond trading is where the slowdown shows most clearly. The fixed-income trading businesses at the five biggest banks, which handle bonds, currencies and commodities, are expected to bring in a little over $19 billion this quarter, down from more than $21 billion in the second quarter. That is a drop of about $2 billion, or roughly 1 dollar out of every 10.
Bank of America already gave investors a preview of the cooler mood. At a Barclays conference in mid-September, CEO Brian Moynihan said the bank expected investment banking fees to fall at least 10% in the third quarter, to between $1.6 billion and $1.8 billion, down from $2 billion a year earlier. He said sales and trading revenue would be roughly flat compared with $5.4 billion in the same quarter last year. Bank of America shares fell about 5.1% that day, their worst drop since April 2025. Moynihan also said that if interest rates rise, some demand for financing would slow.
Rates are rising. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate on September 16 by a quarter point to a range of 3.75% to 4%, its first increase since July 2023, and officials signaled about one more hike before year-end. Higher borrowing costs tend to cool the deal-making and financing activity that feeds Wall Street’s trading and banking desks.
The worries have already shown up in bank stocks. A widely followed index of bank shares had its worst quarter in the third quarter since early 2023, when the country was dealing with a regional banking crisis. Part of that selling came from fears that artificial intelligence could eat into banks’ businesses.
Some analysts see a buying opportunity in that pullback. Analysts including Mike Mayo argue the AI-driven selloff in bank shares looks overdone, and that with Wall Street set to deliver another strong quarter, the lower stock prices could end up rewarding investors. Mayo has warned, though, that while almost everyone was a winner in the first half, the gap between winners and losers could widen this quarter.
For everyday Americans, these results matter more than they might seem. Most people do not own bank shares directly, but millions hold them through pension funds, workplace 401(k) plans and index funds, where giants like JPMorgan are among the largest single holdings. How well banks manage the shift from a boom to a slower market shows up in those retirement balances.
Strong stock-trading desks are acting as the cushion. As bond trading and deal fees slow, banks with the busiest stock desks are leaning on that business to carry their results, which is why Goldman and Morgan Stanley are drawing the most attention heading into next week.
The results start Tuesday, when Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are both scheduled to report before the market opens. Investors will be watching whether the actual numbers match the roughly $19 billion forecast for stock trading, and how much the bond-trading slowdown bites.
JBizNews Desk | Wall Street
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