Despite a notable pullback in gold prices, analysts at Goldman Sachs remain optimistic about the bullion market’s trajectory. The bank sees the forces driving the broad rally becoming increasingly entrenched, yet it is worth noting they’re getting as equally political.
The bank recently reaffirmed its forecast for gold to hit $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026, even as investors and traders navigate temporary volatility driven by liquidation and profit-taking.
Yet, Goldman believes those moments are technical and liquidity-driven, rather than signs of weakening structural demand.
“Strong underlying interest in gold remains evident,” Goldman said in a recent note, pointing to both central bank surveys and intensifying geopolitical uncertainty. The bank acknowledged that its earlier estimates had underestimated sovereign buying activity after gaps emerged in official U.K. trade data from 2025 onward.
Goldman now sees the central bank purchase projections at around 50 tons per month on a rolling basis, nearly double its previous estimate of 29 tons. The pace is expected to accelerate further, averaging about 60 tons per month through 2026 as governments continue to diversify their reserves away from the U.S. dollar.
It is a part of a broader trend, one that has arguably started with sanctions and asset freezes following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. When the …
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