Israel’s defense establishment is on its highest level of alert ahead of Rosh Hashanah, which begins on Friday evening, amid assessments that a security incident could erupt on any of several active fronts. The October 7 massacre continues to resonate strongly within the IDF and the broader defense establishment.
Defense Minister Israel Katz’s statement that “the Iranians like to attack on Jewish holidays because they hate Jews” may have sounded childish in its phrasing, but it contained a great deal of substance. The defense establishment believes a security incident is highly likely. Among other things, the assessment is based on the state of war in the Arabian Gulf and the fact that all theaters remain active.
The National Security Council issued instructions on Sunday urging Israelis abroad to take precautionary measures, including a recommendation that Israeli tourists keep a lower profile in the countries they visit. In practical terms, however, that warning holds little water.
Many areas in Thailand, Vietnam, Greece, Cyprus, Miami, and other tourist destinations are places where Hebrew is effectively the language spoken. Not to mention fashion chains such as Zara, Nike, Adidas, and others across Europe, which at any given time are frequented by large numbers of Israelis, sometimes more than the number visiting those chains’ stores in Israeli malls.
The defense establishment acknowledges that, as of Sunday evening, there was no specific indication of an imminent attack abroad. But Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad cells have both motivation and capabilities, as do combat teams belonging to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which could potentially operate almost anywhere in the world.
Shortly before 5 a.m. on Sunday, the entire IDF was called into the surprise “Alot Hashachar 2.0” exercise, intended to test without warning the military’s readiness for a comprehensive war on any front, from Lebanon and Syria through the eastern border and the West Bank to Gaza and the southern border.
The question is not whether an incident will occur, but when and where
The truth is that no exercise is needed to understand that the IDF must remain at a high level of readiness. A cluster of incidents within a single day across several fronts illustrates the degree of tension. The question is not whether an incident will occur, but when and where. The IDF is currently conducting defensive operations in every possible theater.
The events of the past day demonstrate both the motivation and capabilities involved. In Syria, troops from the Bashan Division were required to respond after three figures were identified approaching the border fence from the Syrian side. The assessment is that they intended to plant a bomb. IDF troops launched an armed drone at them, which apparently killed one of the three terrorists.
In Lebanon, the IDF completed the clearing of tunnels in the Ali Taher Ridge. The assessment is that Hezbollah, which has suffered an extremely severe blow to its morale, will seek to carry out an operation aimed at embarrassing and harming IDF troops or northern Israeli communities.
The situation in the West Bank is particularly volatile. On Sunday, troops from the Menashe Brigade operated in the village of Aqaba in northern Samaria. During the operation, a rocket and weapons were discovered, including an M16 rifle and large quantities of explosives intended for the production of bombs.
Sunday’s operation followed a series of foiled attacks in recent days in the West Bank, including the arrest on Friday of a five-member terrorist cell in the Qabatiya area. A rifle and ammunition were found in the cell’s possession, and the assessment was that its members were preparing to carry out a major attack in northern Samaria.
Gaza also continues to occupy the IDF’s attention. The assessment is that Hamas could seek to carry out a high-profile attack to mark the October 7 massacre.
IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir said: “We are in a tense and volatile period across all theaters, and are preparing for the upcoming holiday period. We continue to draw lessons, and as I have defined it, the basic condition in which the entire IDF finds itself is readiness for a surprise attack.”
The IDF may continue to maintain a high level of alert, but military readiness is not enough. The major question is whether the political leadership has woken up. Has it established doctrines to deter all of the actors involved in the region? When the Iranians fired at a US military vessel over the weekend, they very quickly discovered the American response.
Beyond the military exercises, in which we always win, and beyond the heightened state of alert, it is important that the political leadership also do what is required of it and send a clear message to all the neighbors in the jungle surrounding the villa in the Middle East.
