Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE) reports fiscal Q3 2026 results after the bell today, with Wall Street expecting $11.27 billion in revenue, essentially flat year-over-year. The stock is near an eight-and-a-half-year low around $51, down 20% year-to-date.
Polymarket traders are pricing an 82% chance Nike beats the $0.28 EPS consensus. That’s well below the near-certainty levels seen in other mega-cap earnings markets. Nike beat last quarter’s estimate by nearly 40%, so the market may be underpricing the company’s ability to clear a low bar.
Kalshi has a market with $72,000 in volume where traders are betting on what specific words will come up on the earnings call.
“China” is at 98%. No surprise. Greater China revenue plunged 16% last quarter, and CEO Elliott Hill called the recovery “not happening at the level or pace we need.”
“Tariff” at 93% has a new dimension. The Supreme Court struck down Trump’s IEEPA tariffs on Feb. 20, and a federal judge has ruled that all importers are entitled to refunds. Nike previously estimated $1.5 billion in annualized …
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