The best deal the US and Iran could reach on the nuclear issue may resemble the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) reached during the Obama administration, former senior defense official and Iranian nuclear expert Avner Vilan warned in an interview with 103FM on Monday.
“At best, we will get an agreement like Obama’s deal (the JCPOA). There is a period in which the Iranians do not advance toward a nuclear weapon and are under supervision, which is fine,” he said.
“But regarding ballistic missiles, what we hit, we hit. They were not part of the agreement, and the Iranians will be able to take the money they receive and build themselves up.”
According to Vilan, emerging contacts between the United States and Iran could produce only a partial agreement, one that reopens the Strait of Hormuz, eases pressure on Tehran, and pushes the nuclear question to a later stage.
Israel is closely watching the possibility of an interim arrangement, particularly amid reports that Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz as part of a broader understanding with Washington.
“As it appears, the most urgent issue is reopening Hormuz. The Iranians need pressure relief,” Vilan said.
He said the reported framework could include the release of Iranian funds held in the West, followed by a 60-day period in which talks would begin on the nuclear program. Iran would then either accept or reject a nuclear arrangement that could include the removal of enriched uranium, in exchange for the lifting of US sanctions.
“That is the best result they could receive,” Vilan said. “If and when they reach that point, the regime will survive for a very long time because it will have a continuing economic oxygen line. Nobody is talking about the missiles or the proxies.”
Vilan warns deal could reinforce Iranian regime
Vilan warned that economic relief could end up strengthening the Iranian regime rather than weakening it.
“Regime change does not look like it is going to happen. On the contrary, we are even strengthening it. It is beginning to receive money,” he said.
Addressing Iran’s 60% uranium enrichment is necessary, but not sufficient for a professionally sound nuclear deal, Vilan noted.
“The 60% is perhaps the most urgent issue and a necessary condition, but it is not enough for a good nuclear agreement from a professional standpoint,” he said. “We need to ensure Iran is far enough away from obtaining a weapon.”
That, he said, means ensuring Iran has no nuclear material, that its centrifuges are under supervision, and that it does not have fortified sites where it can conduct industrial-scale enrichment.
“We need to make sure Iran has no path to advance toward nuclear material for a bomb,” Vilan said.
Trump faces three paths with Iran
Vilan said US President Donald Trump now faces three possible paths in dealing with Iran.
The first, he said, is a return to intensive fighting. “He can go back to heavy fighting, hit them hard, but in the end, we will probably return to roughly the same point.”
The second option is a staged agreement, beginning with what Vilan described as “Hormuz for Hormuz,” which could later develop into a nuclear deal. He warned, however, that such a process may stall and leave the sides in an interim situation.
The third option is simply to wait, but Vilan said Trump does not appear interested in that course at this stage.
“We understand that Trump does not want to wait right now,” Vilan said, citing pressure over oil prices, Gulf states’ concerns over instability, and the possibility that Iran could wait out the current US administration.
Vilan warned that the situation could shift quickly and that time may not be working in Israel’s favor.
“Time is not necessarily on our side,” he said. “It is possible that in another 24 hours, we will have a completely different conversation about a return to fighting.”
