PepsiCo Inc. (NASDAQ:PEP) reports Q1 2026 earnings before the bell Thursday.
The company has beaten EPS estimates in three of its last four quarters, which explains why Polymarket gives a 96% chance PepsiCo tops the $1.54 consensus. The more interesting action is on Kalshi.
What Prediction Markets Are Saying
On Kalshi, nearly $25,000 is riding on which specific words CEO Ramon Laguarta and his team will say on the 8:15 a.m. ET call.
The top of the board is mostly formality. “Volume” at 95%, “Acquisition” at 90%, and “China” at 84% are near-certainties for a company that just spent $4 billion on deals and has been losing snack volumes for five straight quarters.
The mid-range contracts are where it gets interesting.
“Tariff” is at 66%. Pepsi concentrate is manufactured in Ireland, but Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE:KO) makes its concentrate in Atlanta. …
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