The Trump administration may be forced to temper the Iran conflict as borrowing costs surge, with the 10-year Treasury yield up 45 basis points since late February.
The Bond Market Pressure Point
Gold advocate Peter Schiff on Monday questioned why Trump dramatically escalated the war Saturday only to reverse course before markets opened, asking whether it was “market manipulation” or an indication the president has no idea what he’s doing.
The answer may lie in Treasury markets.
According to The Kobeissi Letter, the 4.5%-4.6% range represents a critical line in the sand—the same level where Trump pulled back from sweeping Liberation Day tariffs last April.
“As the 10-year note yield surged above 4.50%, President Trump began floating a potential tariff pause. And, once the yield broke above 4.60%, he officially implemented a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs on April 9th, 2025,” The Kobeissi Letter noted.
The Swap Spread Warning
ING’s Padhraic …
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