Homebuyers held the upper hand in 33 of the 47 major U.S. metropolitan areas analyzed by Redfin in June, representing roughly 70% of the nation’s largest housing markets, according to a report released Tuesday, July 14. Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin, said affordability remains the biggest hurdle facing prospective buyers, but those who can qualify for a mortgage now have considerably more negotiating power than at any point in recent years.
Redfin estimates that approximately 1.50 million sellers entered the housing market during June compared with 1.01 million buyers, leaving 48.5% more sellers than buyers—a surplus of nearly half a million homes. The imbalance changed little from May’s 48.7% and remains just below the record 50.1% seller surplus reached in December.
How Redfin Measures the Market
Redfin classifies a market as a buyer’s market when sellers outnumber buyers by more than 10%. A seller’s market exists when buyers exceed sellers by more than 10%, while anything in between is considered balanced.
The brokerage estimates buyer demand using its own customer activity—including the average time from a buyer’s first home tour to closing—combined with Multiple Listing Service data covering active listings and pending sales.
The report analyzes the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan areas, excluding three markets because of insufficient data.
Where Buyers Hold the Most Power
The strongest buyer’s markets continue to be concentrated across the Sun Belt.
Miami ranked first, with an estimated 140% more sellers than buyers, followed by:
- Nashville: 129% more sellers
- Houston: 124%
- San Antonio: 117%
- Austin: 101%
Each market has reached this point for different reasons.
In South Florida, soaring insurance costs and sharply higher homeowners association fees—driven in part by increasing natural-disaster risks—have encouraged more owners to sell while discouraging potential buyers, particularly in the condominium market.
Texas and Nashville face a different dynamic.
Years of aggressive residential construction have produced abundant housing inventory just as elevated mortgage rates have cooled demand. Florida has similarly experienced a surge in newly built homes that has outpaced current buyer activity.
Other metropolitan areas firmly in buyer’s territory include Atlanta, Denver, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Seattle, and Charlotte.
Meanwhile, Baltimore, Boston, Chicago, Cleveland, and New York City remain broadly balanced markets.
The Northeast Continues to Favor Sellers
Only seven major metropolitan areas qualified as seller’s markets during June, matching May for the highest number recorded in the past ten months.
The strongest seller’s market remained Nassau County, New York, where sellers were outnumbered by buyers by 38%.
The remaining seller-friendly markets included:
- Milwaukee: 30% fewer sellers than buyers
- Montgomery County, Pennsylvania: 21%
- Newark, New Jersey: 21%
- New Brunswick, New Jersey: 21%
- Providence, Rhode Island: 18%
- San Francisco: 16%
Redfin attributes the Northeast’s resilience largely to one factor: an ongoing shortage of available homes.
Compared with the rapidly growing Sun Belt, Northeastern states built relatively little housing over the past decade because of limited land availability, restrictive zoning regulations and slower population growth. At the same time, many existing homeowners remain reluctant to sell homes financed with historically low mortgage rates secured before interest rates climbed.
Strong employment markets and higher household incomes continue supporting buyer demand despite elevated borrowing costs.
The Trend May Be Stabilizing
Some of the country’s hottest buyer’s markets are beginning to show early signs of stabilization.
Anaheim, California, experienced the largest monthly improvement, with its seller surplus narrowing to 25%, down from 39% in May.
Riverside improved from 73% to 62%, while Tampa declined from 80% to 70%.
Homeowners appear to be responding.
A separate Redfin report released July 13 found that new home listings fell approximately 1% nationwide from May to their lowest level since December.
The sharpest monthly declines occurred in some of the country’s strongest buyer’s markets:
- Dallas: down 6.5%
- Fort Worth: down 6.2%
- Jacksonville: down 5.5%
Many potential sellers appear to be delaying listings after watching neighboring homes remain on the market longer than expected.
Prices Continue Setting Records
Despite the growing supply imbalance, home prices remain remarkably resilient.
The national median home-sale price climbed 2.2% from a year earlier to a record $408,776 in June.
Existing-home sales increased 0.1% from May to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of approximately 4.4 million homes, the strongest level since November 2022 and 4.2% above June 2025.
Pending home sales also rose 0.5%, reaching their highest level since 2023 outside of April.
What It Means for Buyers
For qualified buyers, today’s housing market offers opportunities that were largely unavailable during the pandemic-era housing boom.
Negotiating leverage has improved.
Price reductions, seller-paid closing costs, repair concessions and fewer bidding wars have become increasingly common in many markets.
Still, Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s chief economist, cautions that increased negotiating power does not solve the underlying affordability challenge.
High mortgage rates and record home prices continue placing ownership beyond the reach of many households, regardless of whether buyers or sellers currently hold the advantage.
The result is a housing market split in two.
In places like Miami, Houston, and Austin, sellers now significantly outnumber buyers, while nationally the median home price continues reaching new all-time highs.
Redfin is part of Rocket Companies (NYSE: RKT).
JBizNews Desk | New York
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