Religious identity remains a strong indicator of political affiliation in Israel, with support for coalition and opposition parties closely tracking voters’ religious self-identification, according to a new Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) analysis.
The IDI analyzed responses from more than 12,000 Jewish adults collected across 20 surveys conducted between November 2022 and October 2023, examining how Israelis who identify as haredi, religious, traditional-religious, traditional non-religious, or secular voted in the 2022 Knesset elections.
The findings reveal a clear correlation between religiosity and political alignment. Among haredi voters, 97% supported parties that would go on to form the governing coalition, compared with 80% of national-religious voters and 66.5% of traditional voters. In contrast, 74% of secular voters backed parties aligned with the opposition.
While the relationship between religion and political affiliation remained largely stable compared to the previous election, the study identified several notable shifts between 2021 and 2022.
Bennett’s Yamina dissolved, creating shifts in right-wing electorate
The most significant change was the expansion of the Religious Zionist-Otzma Yehudit alliance, which broadened its appeal beyond its traditional religious base.
Among national-religious voters, support for the alliance rose from 30% in 2021 to 45% in 2022, while its share of traditional and secular voters also increased substantially.
The shift coincided with the dissolution of Naftali Bennett’s Yamina party, whose former supporters largely migrated to Religious Zionist-Otzma Yehudit.
Likud also strengthened its position among traditional voters, increasing its support from 39% to 46.5%, while Yesh Atid expanded its backing among secular Israelis from 31% to 39%.
By contrast, National Unity’s support among secular voters declined from 18% to 13%, while Labor and Meretz together fell from 19% to 16% of the secular vote.
Overall, as voters become more religious, they are increasingly likely to support parties aligned with the governing coalition, while secular Israelis continue to overwhelmingly favor opposition parties.
Although individual parties gained and lost support between the 2021 and 2022 elections, the broader relationship between religiosity and political affiliation has stayed consistent.
