Just eight days ago, International Energy Agency Chief Fatih Birol declared the world was facing the largest energy supply disruption in modern history.
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The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, he said, was “more serious than the ones in 1973, 1979 and 2022 together.”
Twelve million barrels per day removed from markets — more than the two 1970s oil shocks combined. A global energy crunch twice as severe as the Ukraine crisis.
In less than two weeks, that thesis was fully dismantled by the stock market.
On Wednesday, the S&P 500 — tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) — pushed above 7,002 and printed a fresh all-time high of 7,015, capping a 10% rally in just 11 sessions.
While the physical economy still reflects the worst energy shock on record, financial markets are already pricing a world in which it has passed — with companies effectively back to business as usual.
The S&P 500 is now trading higher than it was before the conflict began. In equity …
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