NEW YORK — Morgan Stanley says SpaceX shares falling to $100 would effectively value the company’s artificial intelligence ambitions at little or nothing, arguing the recent selloff has become disconnected from the long-term business it believes investors are buying.
In a research note released Friday, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated his bullish stance on SpaceX, saying many investors are focused on the upcoming IPO lockup expiration and the recent decline in the stock, while overlooking what the firm sees as the company’s biggest long-term opportunity: artificial intelligence.
The firm’s analysis comes after SpaceX shares fell sharply from their post-IPO highs amid repeated Starship launch delays, concerns about valuation and expectations that millions of additional shares could enter the market once lockup restrictions expire.
Morgan Stanley argues that if the stock were to trade at $100 per share, investors would be assigning virtually no value to SpaceX’s AI business, despite the company’s expanding investments across launch services, Starlink connectivity and artificial intelligence.
For investors, the debate has shifted beyond rockets. The question is whether SpaceX ultimately becomes one of the world’s largest AI infrastructure companies.
Jonas continues to rate the stock Overweight and maintains a $300 price target, saying the market is underestimating how AI could transform the company’s economics over the next decade. The firm’s investment thesis increasingly centers on Starship enabling massive deployments of computing infrastructure in orbit while leveraging Starlink’s global communications network to support AI-driven services.
Not everyone on Wall Street agrees.
Morningstar continues to argue the shares remain significantly overvalued, saying investors are already pricing in highly optimistic assumptions about Starship, AI commercialization and future profitability. Other analysts caution that execution risks remain substantial and that meaningful financial returns from SpaceX’s AI strategy could take years to materialize.
Recent volatility reflects those competing views. The stock has come under pressure following multiple Starship delays and growing concern over insider selling once IPO lockup restrictions expire, even as several major investment banks have maintained positive ratings.
The next major test for investors may not be another earnings report, but whether SpaceX can convince the market that its AI vision is becoming a commercial business rather than a distant promise.
JBizNews Desk | Wall Street
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