President Donald Trump‘s policy decisions and commentary drove the five best and worst days of the U.S. stock market during his second term, according to an analysis by Tom Lee‘s asset management firm Fundstrat.
Since his election in 2025, Trump’s decisions on key issues such as tariffs, Iran war, and Federal Reserve chair appointments have been erratic, reflecting his “Art of the Deal” negotiation style. This unpredictability has made his policy agenda and commentary the primary drivers of the market’s performance, as per the report released on Thursday.
Trump’s influence is a departure from the norm, where the S&P 500’s performance is typically driven by macroeconomic factors like corporate earnings, geopolitical events, and monetary policy. While U.S. government policy can be a factor, it’s unusual for it to be the sole driver.
The President’s impact has been so pronounced that without the five strongest market days tied to his decisions, the S&P 500 would be down 2.7% since he took office in 2025, rather than up 19%, the report stated.
Source: Fundstrat Direct
This is a stark contrast to other presidencies, where the stock market remained in the green even when the five best days were removed, except during former President George W. Bush‘s 2001 and 2005 terms, when it remained negative regardless, according to Fundstrat. With about 2.5 years still left in Trump’s term, markets still have time to change direction.
The five biggest up days in Trump’s second term (by magnitude) are:
(1) A 9.5% surge on April 9, 2025, after …
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