The most bearish analyst call on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) right now rests on a single uncomfortable data point: a record 50,363 vehicles sitting unsold at the end of Q1.
Analyst Ryan Brinkman from JPMorgan reiterated his Underweight rating and $145 price target on Monday, implying roughly 60% downside from TSLA’s current price of around $350.
The Delivery Miss That Started It
Tesla reported 358,023 Q1 2026 deliveries, 4% below analyst consensus and 7% below JPMorgan’s own 385,000 forecast. Tesla built 50,363 more vehicles than it sold in the quarter, the largest single-quarter inventory buildup in the company’s history.
Brinkman noted that Tesla’s production has grown 80% since Q1 2023, while vehicle sales have declined 15% over the same period. Free cash flow, he argued, may bear the consequences.
The Narrative Problem
The deeper issue, according to Brinkman, is the gap …
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