President Donald Trump will deliver a prime-time address to the nation at 9 p.m. EST on Wednesday, his first since the so-called “Operation Epic Fury” launched on Feb. 28.
“Big Short” legend Steve Eisman called this a “unipolar market” last week, meaning the Iran war is the single variable running the entire stock market.
Kalshi’s word-mention market for tonight’s address has already topped $2 million in volume in under 17 hours.
What The Market Expects
“Nuclear” at 97% and “Epic Fury” at 92% are locked in. “NATO” at 88% is guaranteed after Trump said he was strongly considering leaving, and told European allies to “go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT.”
“Oil” at 82%. How heavily Trump leans on oil language could signal whether he is serious about ending the operation with the Strait of Hormuz still closed, a scenario that would keep crude elevated well above $100.
“Hormuz” at 79%, down 10 points. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed Tuesday that reopening the Strait is not a core military objective. BlackRock Inc (NYSE:BLK) CEO Larry Fink warned oil could hit $150 if Iran remains a threat to Hormuz after the war.
The Coin Flips
“Midnight Hammer” at 64%. This was the codename for last year’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, which Trump claimed had obliterated the country’s nuclear program. Whether he references it tonight could signal how much of the address is a victory lap versus a forward-looking …
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