Something is off with the math in Washington.
On Wednesday morning, President Donald Trump declared on Truth Social that the Strait of Hormuz is now “permanently” open — crediting US military superiority and a new understanding with China under which Beijing agreed not to ship weapons to Iran. He added that President Xi Jinping would give him “a big, fat hug” during an upcoming visit.
The day before, in an interview with Fox Business, Trump indicated the oil market had held up better than feared. With WTI – tracked by the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO) – near $93 a barrel, far below the $200 some analysts warned was possible at the outset of the conflict, Trump said the price was manageable — and forecast much lower gas prices well ahead of the November midterm elections.
“If you told me at only $92 a barrel I would’ve been very surprised. And you know what, it is going to come dropping down,” he said.
But vessel-tracking data tells a different story — and the two narratives cannot both be true at the same time.
Hormuz Traffic Flow Still 10% Of Pre-War Levels
According to Kpler trade risk analyst Ana Subasic, commercial crossings through the strait fell to six on April 13 — down from 14 the session prior, and against a pre-conflict average closer …
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