After months of war, strikes, threats, and negotiations that have so far failed to end the ongoing conflict, US President Donald Trump is returning to one of the oldest tools in the United States’ arsenal against Iran: choking it economically.
According to a Wall Street Journal report, Trump has for now adopted a “wait and see” strategy, giving financial sanctions and the US naval blockade of Iranian ports more time to deepen the damage to the Islamic Republic’s economy instead of launching another broad round of strikes.
According to the report, the shift followed persuasion efforts within the administration. Trump’s aides presented him with data intended to show the extent to which existing sanctions have already hurt Iran.
Senior administration and White House officials have recommended tightening the current sanctions further and imposing new ones, based on the assessment that economic pressure could be the most effective way to force the Iranian regime to back down. Trump, at least for now, was persuaded and told his advisers that he would prefer not to order additional strikes.
Trump publicly announced the return to this approach on Monday, telling reporters that Iran has “no money,” adding, “Iran is broke, completely broke.”
Iranian economy in ‘free fall’
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last month that the administration’s economic policy had sent the Iranian currency into “free fall” and pushed inflation into triple-digit rates.
The decision to pursue the economic sanctions route comes as Trump currently has reservations about the two other options available to him. He is reluctant to return to an all-out war, but he is also wary of another round of negotiations with Tehran.
In recent days, talks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have once again become complicated after Iran presented far-reaching demands in exchange for fully reopening the shipping route, including billions of dollars in US payments, the lifting of the blockade, and the withdrawal of US forces from the region.
From the White House’s perspective, the sanctions strategy offers another advantage: It allows Washington to maintain heavy pressure on Tehran without immediately entering a new military round that could drive up energy prices and trigger an Iranian response against infrastructure in the Gulf.
Risk of economic pressure
Former senior officials described this as the “optimal space” for the US, provided that increasing amounts of oil can continue to reach the market despite the threats. According to one, a bad agreement could effectively subsidize Iran’s reconstruction, while a major military escalation could shock the oil market if the regime survives the strikes and retaliates against energy infrastructure in the Gulf.
Economic pressure, however, also comes with risks. Experts who served in previous US administrations warned that an American blockade could further worsen Iran’s already difficult economic situation, and that this could make a response from Tehran more likely, as “no one should expect Iran to simply sit idly by while this is happening.”
That is also the main vulnerability of the renewed strategy. It rests on the assumption that economic pain will force Tehran to yield before it chooses to escalate militarily.
US officials stressed that Trump could still change his mind, particularly in the event of a severe Iranian response. For now, however, the president is choosing to give time, sanctions, and the blockade a chance to do the work instead of aircraft and bombs.
