President Donald Trump‘s claim that he is “permanently opening” the Strait of Hormuz sent Polymarket peace deal odds surging on Friday, with traders repricing a potential US-Iran agreement by 28 to 43 percentage points across every major deadline.
But the market still isn’t buying the “permanently” framing: traders give just 41% odds of a permanent deal by April 22, the day the current ceasefire expires.
Cash-For-Uranium Plan Drives Repricing
The repricing tracks a scoop from Axios reporting the U.S. and Iran are negotiating over a three-page memorandum of understanding to end the war, with a central element being a $20 billion release of frozen Iranian funds in exchange for Tehran giving up its enriched uranium stockpile.
U.S. negotiators started at $6 billion for humanitarian purchases; Iran asked for $27 billion.
Trump pushed back on Truth Social after the story published, writing …
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