President Donald Trump promised a Golden Age of low inflation and hot economic growth, but the first business survey since the Iran war broke out suggests he’s getting the opposite.
The warnings came from the first business surveys printed since the war started on Feb. 28.
The S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) — a survey-based gauge of business activity across both the manufacturing and services sectors — fell to 51.4 in March.
While the broader headline reading still points toward an expansionary private sector activity, the details beneath the surface were more concerning.
Input costs posted their sharpest monthly increase in 10 months, signaling a renewed inflation pulse driven by higher energy prices. At the same time, U.S. private sector employment declined for the first time since February 2025.
This isn’t just a story of slowing growth. It’s a picture of an economy drifting toward stagflation — and a Federal Reserve with no easy response.
What The March PMI Shows — And Why It Matters
The survey, compiled between March 12 and 23, revealed a widening split across the economy:
- The Services PMI fell to 51.1, an 11-month low and below expectations, as higher energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty weighed on demand. Export orders declined at a faster pace.
- Manufacturing, by contrast, rose to 52.4, a two-month high. …
