Kevin Warsh is about to inherit the most hostile environment for rate cuts since the Fed started easing last September.
Donald Trump‘s Fed Chair nominee takes over from Jerome Powell in May with oil near $95, private credit in open distress and inflation still above target.
Polymarket traders now price a 22% chance of zero rate cuts in 2026, roughly double where that contract sat in January when consensus still expected two or three cuts.
The most likely single outcome is one cut at 30%. The April 28 FOMC decision is priced at 91% hold.
J.P. Morgan Global Research no longer expects the Fed to cut at all this year.
Oil Is The Problem Nobody Can Hedge Away
Iran is laying mines and attacking vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and even a historic 400-million-barrel emergency reserve release from the IEA hasn’t been enough to bring prices down.
Analysts warn oil could breach …
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