United States faces crossroads in Iraq as new prime minister is appointed – analysis

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Iraq has a new prime minister and president almost six months after it held elections in November 2025.

The US Embassy in Baghdad said that the US mission in Iraq “extends its best wishes to Prime Minister-designate Ali Al-Zaydi in his efforts to form a government capable of achieving the aspirations of all Iraqis for a brighter and more peaceful future.”

However, as the US seeks to put on a positive face regarding the incoming prime minister, the US is also announcing new rewards for information on several key Iraqi militia leaders, whose militias are linked to Iran.

These militias carried out attacks on US forces and diplomats, and also attacked the Kurdistan Region in Iraq.

“We stand in solidarity with the Iraqi people aspiring to the shared objectives of safeguarding Iraq’s sovereignty, promoting security free from terrorism, and building a prosperous future that delivers tangible benefits for Americans and Iraqis,” the US Embassy said in a post to X/Twitter on April 29.

Now the US has to decide what comes next. Will the Iranian militias really be reined in? There’s no evidence that the $10 million rewards for several of their leaders will have an effect. The leaders seem to continue to appear publicly. The largest militia, Badr, continues to operate without US sanctions.

US funding in Iraq

Now, questions remain about US funding for the Kurdish Peshmerga in northern Iraq and also for continued work with Iraq.

Ostensibly, the US has been supporting anti-ISIS operations in Iraq, even though those operations largely ended in 2018. The US, nevertheless, sees a reason to continue to have good ties with Iraq. For instance, invested large sums in a new consulate in the Kurdistan Region of northern Iraq.

“The United States’ Fiscal Year 2027 defense budget outlines a significant restructuring of its counter-ISIS campaign, including changes to financial assistance for Kurdish Peshmerga forces and Iraq,” Kurdish media outlet Rudaw noted. “The Counter-ISIS Train and Equip Fund (CTEF) request totals $303.1 million, aimed at supporting vetted partner forces across Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria in ongoing operations against Islamic State (ISIS) remnants and networks.”

In Iraq, it appears $118 million will go towards existing partner forces.

“However, the Peshmerga ministry, the Kurdistan Region’s equivalent of a defense ministry, is slated to receive $0 in direct funding in the proposed 2027 budget, marking a notable shift in the structure of CTEF support,” the Rudaw report said.

This will harm Peshmerga salaries and could weaken the Kurdistan region, an island of stability and a close partner of the US.

Rudaw noted that when “asked about the issue, Republican Congressman Joe Wilson underlined to Rudaw the importance of ties with Erbil and Kurdish allies.”

“Personally, I’ll be working with the administration [on this matter]… the Kurdistan Regional Government and the Kurdish people are very important. We want their sovereignty to be maintained within Syria and Iraq. This will be considered,” Wilson said.

US Democratic Congressman Seth Moulton said that the US “must support our allies.”

US Congressman Abe Hamadeh asked US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on April 30, “Given Iraq’s close ties to Iran and the growing challenges we’re facing with their government, does [the Defense Secretary] believe the $118 million we’re providing them for counter-ISIS operations is a wise use of American taxpayer dollars?”

Hegseth responded that the US was paying close attention to the new government in Iraq. He noted that some of Iraq’s efforts have been successful, while others have not. The US has left bases in Syria over the last year. Now the US will face a major test about what comes next in Iraq.

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